April 26, the Arkansas Democrat Gazette announced that there were 104 hospital beds in the state currently occupied by Covid 19 patients. The same article revealed that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a group that has been doing much (most?) of the modeling for government agencies during this pandemic, had predicted on April 2 that by the 26th Arkansas would have 2,000 Covid 19 patients occupying hospital beds. Thus the IMHE overstated Arkansas’ need for Covid 19 beds by a mere 1,823%, or if you prefer, by a full order of magnitude, and then double that number.
From a statistical perspective, this means that the IMHE’s numbers are pure garbage, having no relation in any shape, form or fashion to objective reality. Yet these numbers are being used nationwide to set public policy, without debate, through unilateral executive action. We have seen millions of our countrymen lose their businesses and their employment, we have seen our fundamental civil liberties curtailed or stripped altogether, we see the supply chains for even basic necessities of life beginning to snap, all on the basis of these models. One wonders, when these models prove to be completely wrong, will the modelers be held to account? So far it seems unlikely.
Now many of our luminaries tell the populace that we should not expect to re-open until a vaccine is available for Covid 19, a process they assure us will take “only” 12 to 18 months. Yet in only a little over a month we see an all time record level of new unemployment and our farms grinding to a halt. We have not seen the exponential growth viral deaths that we were warned of; we are seeing an exponential explosion of poverty and a rising specter of famine.
And about that 12-18 months for a vaccine…. SARS, a virus very closely related to Covid 19, came on the seen in 2002, followed by MERS, another corona virus, in 2012. Scientists have been searching for vaccines for both of these viruses since they appeared, so far without success. The government agents that promise a vaccine in 18 months have so far offered no answer as to why they will be more successful this time.
Which is to say we are entering a period of civil unrest, possible mass starvation, growing authoritarianism… and all in the name of following allegedly scientific models that have proven wrong every single time they have been measured against real world outcomes. Perhaps we should re-consider our approach.